Deprem Tahmini ve Tehlike Analizleri İçin Çoklu Parametre Kullanımı: Doğu Anadolu Fay Zonu (DAFZ), Türkiye, Örneği
Özet
Bu çalışma, Doğu Anadolu Fay Zonu (DAFZ) üzerinde 1971-2021 yılları arasında meydana gelen 13.009 sığ deprem verisini kullanarak çoklu sismotektonik parametrelerle güncel deprem tehlikesi ve 2022-2032 dönemi için deprem tahmin analizi sunmaktadır. Analiz kapsamında Gutenberg-Richter b-değeri, tamlık magnitüdü (Mc), fraktal boyut (Dc), Poisson modeline dayalı deprem olasılıkları ile tekrarlama zamanları, öncü sismik durgunluğu gösteren Z-değeri ve Göreceli Yoğunluk (RI) ile Oluşum Bilgisi (PI) yöntemlerinin birleşimi olan RIPI modeli değerlendirilmiştir. Veri setinde ortalama tamlık magnitüdü Mc = 2.5 kabul edilmiş ve ayrıştırma işlemi sonrasında elde edilen 4.891 bağımsız deprem ile sismik durgunluk haritalandırılmıştır. Tüm bölge için b-değeri 1,07±0,07 ve fraktal boyut Dc-değeri 1,33±0,06 olarak hesaplanmıştır. İstatistiksel bulgular; düşük b-değeri, yüksek Z-değeri ve RIPI sıcak nokta lokasyonlarının Palu, Pütürge, Erkenek, Pazarcık, Amanos, Sakçagöz ve Narlı segmentleri ile Malatya, Elazığ, Kahramanmaraş ve Hatay civarında birbirleriyle örtüştüğünü ve 2022 yılı başı itibarıyla sismik durgunluk gösteren 7 anomali bölgesinin bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Sonuç olarak, çoklu parametreli bu bütüncül yaklaşım DAFZ üzerinde orta ve uzun vadeli deprem tehlikesinin ve potansiyelinin belirlenmesinde güvenilir ve kritik bilgiler sağlamaktadır.
This study presents an analysis of current seismic hazard and earthquake forecasting for the 2022–2032 period using multiple seismotectonic parameters based on 13,009 shallow earthquake records that occurred on the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ) between 1971 and 2021. Within the scope of the analysis, the Gutenberg-Richter b-value, magnitude of completeness (Mc), fractal dimension (Dc), Poisson-based earthquake probabilities and recurrence times, Z-value indicating precursory seismic quiescence, and the RIPI model—combining Relative Intensity (RI) and Pattern Informatics (PI) techniques—were evaluated. The average magnitude of completeness was adopted as Mc = 2.5, and after declustering, 4,891 independent earthquakes were used to map seismic quiescence. For the entire region, the b-value was calculated as 1.07±0.07 and the fractal dimension Dc-value as 1.33±0.06. Statistical findings reveal that low b-value, high Z-value, and RIPI hotspot locations overlap across the Palu, Pütürge, Erkenek, Pazarcık, Amanos, Sakçagöz, and Narlı segments, as well as the vicinities of Malatya, Elazığ, Kahramanmaraş, and Hatay, identifying 7 anomaly zones showing seismic quiescence as of early 2022. In conclusion, this multi-parameter integrated approach provides reliable and critical insights for determining medium- and long-term earthquake hazards and potential along the EAFZ.
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