İzmir Körfezinde Tsunami Hareketinin Bir Sismik Senaryo İçin Sayısal Modellemesi
Özet
Bu çalışmada, İzmir Körfezi ve çevresinde olası bir sismik senaryoya dayalı tsunami dalga hareketi, NAMI DANCE sayısal modelleme yazılımı kullanılarak simüle edilmiştir. Benzetimlerde 115 m çözünürlüklü EMODNET verisi ve yüksek çözünürlüklü İzmir Körfezi batimetri verisiyle iç içe 10 m grid aralığı tercih edilmiştir. İzmir Dış Körfez'de KB-GD uzanımlı fay üzerinde tanımlanan Mw 7.3 büyüklüğündeki senaryo depremi kapsamında dalga yüksekliği, varış süreleri, akım derinliği ve karadaki su baskını mesafeleri hesaplanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, episantrdan 10 km uzaklıktaki Eski Foça'ya ilk tsunami dalgasının depremden 13 dakika sonra ulaşacağı, en yüksek dalga yüksekliğinin 1.675 m, karadaki su baskını mesafesinin 235 m ve maksimum akıntı hızının 1.553 m/s olacağı tespit edilmiştir. Episantra 26 km uzaklıkta yer alan Urla'ya ilk dalganın 35 dakikada varacağı, maksimum dalga yüksekliğinin 0.71 m ve baskın mesafesinin 55 m olacağı belirlenmiştir. Episantrdan 15 km mesafedeki Karaburun'a ise ilk dalganın 40. dakikada ulaşacağı, en yüksek dalganın 0.797 m ve karada ilerleme mesafesinin 40 m olacağı hesaplanmıştır. Sonuçlar, İzmir ili genelinde tsunami tehlike, risk ve tahliye haritalarının acilen hazırlanması ve kapsamlı tsunami eylem planlarının hayata geçirilmesinin hayati önem taşıdığını göstermektedir.
In this study, tsunami wave movement based on a potential seismic scenario in and around the Gulf of Izmir was simulated using NAMI DANCE numerical modeling software. In the simulations, 115 m resolution EMODNET data and high-resolution Gulf of Izmir bathymetry data were utilized with a nested 10 m grid spacing. Within the scope of a scenario earthquake of magnitude Mw 7.3 defined on a NW-SE trending fault in the Outer Gulf of Izmir, wave height, arrival times, flow depth, and inland inundation distances were calculated. According to the findings, the first tsunami wave will reach Eski Foça, located 10 km from the epicenter, 13 minutes after the earthquake, with a maximum wave height of 1.675 m, an inland inundation distance of 235 m, and a maximum current speed of 1.553 m/s. For Urla, located 26 km from the epicenter, the first wave will arrive in 35 minutes, with a maximum wave height of 0.71 m and an inundation distance of 55 m. Meanwhile, for Karaburun, located 15 km from the epicenter, the first wave is expected to arrive at the 40th minute, reaching a maximum wave height of 0.797 m and an inland penetration distance of 40 m. The results demonstrate that urgently preparing tsunami hazard, risk, and evacuation maps across Izmir Province and implementing comprehensive tsunami action plans are of vital importance.
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