Filyos Limanının Sıvılaştırılmış Doğal Gaz (LNG) Yakıt İkmal Noktası Olarak Potansiyeli
Özet
Uluslararası Denizcilik Örgütü'nün (IMO) kükürt ve emisyon kısıtlamaları doğrultusunda küresel deniz taşımacılığında öne çıkan Sıvılaştırılmış Doğal Gaz (LNG), kükürt ve azot oksit salınımlarını önemli ölçüde azaltan çevreci bir alternatif sunmaktadır. Bu çalışma; küresel filodaki LNG kullanımını, metan sızıntısı ve yanma verimsizliği gibi teknik kusurları, ikmal yöntemlerini (STS, TTS, TPS) ve liman seçimi kriterlerini (coğrafya, emniyet, kapasite, maliyet ve ün) detaylıca incelemektedir. Karadeniz Bölgesi genelinde yapılan analizlerde Türkiye, Düzenli Hat Gemi Taşımacılığı İkili Bağlantı Endeksi (LBSCI) verilerine göre en yüksek ortalama puana sahip olup bölgesel deniz ticaret ağında ana düğüm noktasıdır. Filyos Limanı ise Filyos Doğalgaz İşleme Tesisi'ne yakınlığı, TPAO sondaj filosuna lojistik destek sunması ve mevcut gaz altyapısı sayesinde ek ilk yatırım maliyeti gerektirmeden kıyıdan gemiye (TPS) LNG ikmali sağlayabilecek en uygun merkezdir. Karadeniz'deki kısıtlı ticaret hacmi, fiyat dalgalanmaları ve metan kayıpları gibi ticari ile teknik risklere karşın, Filyos Limanı'nda kurulacak bir LNG ikmal altyapısı; düşük risk ve sermaye maliyetiyle limanın bölgesel rekabetçiliğini ve prestijini artıracak, çevreci politikaları güçlendirecek ve gelecekte yüksek getiri sağlayacak stratejik bir fırsat sunmaktadır.
In line with the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) sulfur and emission regulations, Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) has emerged in global maritime transport as an environmentally friendly alternative that significantly reduces sulfur and nitrogen oxide emissions. This study thoroughly examines the use of LNG in the global fleet, technical drawbacks such as methane slip and combustion inefficiency, bunkering methods (STS, TTS, TPS), and port selection criteria (geography, safety, capacity, cost, and reputation). In analyses conducted across the Black Sea region, Turkey holds the highest average score according to the Liner Shipping Bilateral Connectivity Index (LBSCI) data and serves as the main node in the regional maritime trade network. Filyos Port, owing to its proximity to the Filyos Natural Gas Processing Facility, its logistic support to the TPAO drilling fleet, and its existing gas infrastructure, stands out as the most suitable hub capable of providing terminal-to-ship (TPS) LNG bunkering without requiring additional initial investment costs. Despite commercial and technical risks such as limited trade volume in the Black Sea, price fluctuations, and methane losses, establishing an LNG bunkering infrastructure at Filyos Port represents a strategic opportunity that, with low risk and capital cost, will enhance the port's regional competitiveness and prestige, strengthen environmental policies, and yield high future returns.
Referanslar
Acciaro, M. (2014). Real option analysis for environmental compliance: LNG and emission control areas. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 28, 41-50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2013.12.007
Alkan, S., & Erdoğan, O. (2015). Filyos Vadisi Projesi’nin Bartın’a Olası Etkileri Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme. 1. Bartın Sektörel Kalkınma Sempozyumu. Şu tarihte erişildi: 25.07.2022:
Alpar, B., & Unlu, S. (2010). Volatile Aromatic Compounds (BTEX) in Sediments Offshore Zonguldak Industrial Region, Black Sea, Turkey. Asian Journal of Chemistry, 22(5), 3531.
Arkas, (2021). Arkas Bunkering and Sumitomo Corporation Sign Agreement for the Marine Fuel of the Future. Şu tarihte erişildi: 05.07.2022: arkas.com.tr/ennews_detail.html?newsId=1454
Arkman, M. S. (2019). Turkey’s Middle Corridor and Belt and Road Initiative: Coherent or Conflicting?. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/11336
Atış, E., & Çelikoğlu, Ş. (2019). Sosyo-ekonomik ve çevresel yönleriyle Filyos Vadi Projesi. International Social Sciences Studies Journal, 5(29), 49-68. http://tucaum.ankara.edu.tr/wp-content/uploads/sites/280/2018/12/30.YC4B1l.Ozet22Evren-AtC4B1C59F-C59Eaban-C387elikoC49Flu.pdf
Atlı, A. (2020). Turkish Ports and China’s Maritime Silk Road: Expectations and Benefits. A Sea Change?: China’s Role in the Black Sea, 66. https://mei.edu/sites/default/files/2020-11/ASeaChange3F-ChinasRoleintheBlackSea.pdf#page=68
Bichou, K. (2015). The ISPS code and the cost of port compliance: an initial logistics and supply chain framework for port security assessment and management. In Port Management (pp. 109137). Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137475770_6
Bilyay, E., Ozbahceci, B. O., & Yalciner, A. C. (2011). Extreme waves at filyos, southern black sea. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 11(3), 659-666. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-659-2011
Brünnet, H., Reppekus, D., Theobald, M., Kornatz, G., (2018). Formation and avoidance of crankcase explosions in large oil, dual-fuel and gas engines. September 2018 Conference: 5th Rostock Large Engine Symposium, Rostock, Germany.
Bunker Ports News, (2022). Istanbul Bunker Prices, Şu tarihte erişildi: 05.07.2022: bunkerportsnews.com/PortBunkerPrices.aspx?ElementID=02162cc7-d5e7-458f-8376-152686cb872f
Calderón, M., Illing, D., & Veiga, J. (2016). Facilities for bunkering of liquefied natural gas in ports. Transportation research procedia, 14, 2431-2440. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2016.05.288
Ceyhan, M. S., Kamacı, A., & Peçe, M. A. (2017). Batı Karadeniz Bölgesinin kalkınmasında Filyos projesi başat bir rol oynayabilir mi?. dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/bilgisosyal/issue/36462/413183
Cullinane, K., & Bergqvist, R. (2014). Emission control areas and their impact on maritime transport. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 28, 1-5. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2013.12.004
Connecticut Enerji ve Çevre Koruma Departmanı. (2022). Public Utilities Regulatory Authority: What is LNG?. Gas Pipeline Safety. Son güncellendiği tarih: Mart, 2022. Şu tarihte erişildi: 06.07.2022: https://portal.ct.gov/PURA/Gas-Pipeline-Safety/What-is-LNG
Çetinkaya, M. (2014). Filyos Vadisi Projesi. Filyos Valley Project), Batı Karadeniz Kalkınma Ajansı, Zonguldak. bakkakutuphane.org/upload/dokumandosya/Filyos-Vadisi-Projesi--01.04.2015.23.37.38.pdf
Deng, J., Wang, X., Wei, Z., Wang, L., Wang, C., & Chen, Z. (2021). A review of NOx and SOx emission reduction technologies for marine diesel engines and the potential evaluation of liquefied natural gas fuelled vessels. Science of the Total Environment, 766, 144319. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144319
DNV GL, (2018a). Alternative fuels: the options. Maritime Impact; Industry Insights. Şu tarihte erişildi: 05.07.2022. dnv.com/expert-story/maritime-impact/alternative-fuels.html
DNV GL, (2018b). Maritime Forecast to 2050. Şu tarihte erişildi: 06.07.2022. https://www.dnvgl.com/publications/maritime-forecast-to-2050-107160
Doymus, M., Sakar, G. D., Yildiz, S. T., & Acik, A. (2022). Small-scale LNG supply chain optimization for LNG bunkering in Turkey. Computers & Chemical Engineering, 162, 107789. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compchemeng.2022.107789
Elgohary, M. M., Seddiek, I. S., & Salem, A. M. (2015). Overview of alternative fuels with emphasis on the potential of liquefied natural gas as future marine fuel. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part M: Journal of Engineering for the Maritime Environment, 229(4), 365-375. https://doi.org/10.1177%2F1475090214522778
European Environment Agency, (2021). Emissions of air pollutants from transport. eea.europa.eu/ims
Eyring, V., Isaksen, I. S., Berntsen, T., Collins, W. J., Corbett, J. J., Endresen, O., Grainger R. G., Moldanova J., Schlager H., Stevenson, D. S., (2010). Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Shipping. Atmospheric Environment, 44(37), 4735-4771. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.04.059
Fan, H., Enshaei, H., & Jayasinghe, S. G. (2021). Safety philosophy and risk analysis methodology for LNG bunkering simultaneous operations (SIMOPs): A literature review. Safety science, 136, 105150. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2020.105150
Gil-Lopez, T., & Verdu-Vazquez, A. (2021). Environmental Analysis of the Use of Liquefied Natural
Gas in Maritime Transport within the Port Environment. Sustainability, 13(21), 11989. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132111989
Głomski, P., & Michalski, R. (2011). Problems with determination of evaporation rate and properties of boil-off gas on board LNG carriers. Journal of Polish CIMAC, 6(1), 133-140. https://doi.org/10.7225/toms.v02.n02.001
Güner, M. D. (2007). Transport of Hazardous and Noxious Goods by Sea—The IMDG Code. In Pollution of the Sea—Prevention and Compensation (pp. 95-109). Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-73396-6_8
Iannaccone, T., Landucci, G., & Cozzani, V. (2018). Inherent safety assessment of LNG fuelled ships and bunkering operations: A consequence-based approach. Chemical Engineering Transactions, 67, 121-126. https://doi.org/10.3303/CET1867021
IAPH, (2018). IAPH Temiz Deniz Yakıtları Çalışma Grubu. Şu tarihte erişildi: 05.07.2022: iaphworldports.org/clean-marine-fuel-cmf/
IGU, (2018). “World Gas LNG Report - 2018 Edition,” IGU - International Gas Union, 2018. igu.org/resources/2018-world-lng-report-27th-world-gas-conference-edition/
IGU, (2022). “World LNG Report 2022” International Gas Union, 2022. igu.org/resources/world-lng-report-2022/
International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers, (2017). LNG Custody Transfer Handbook, 5th ed.; International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers: Paris, France. giignl.org/document/custody-transfer-5th-edition-2017/
IMO, (2020). Report of fuel oil consumption data submitted to the IMO Ship Fuel Oil Consumption Database in GISIS (Reporting year: 2019) MEPC 76/6/1; IMO: London, UK. https://ibia.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/MEPC-76-6-1-Report-Of-Fuel-Oil-Consumption-Data-Submitted-To-The-Imo-Ship-Fuel-Oil-Consumption-Databas...-Secretariat.pdf
IMO, (2021a). Fourth IMO GHG Study. International Maritime Organisation (IMO) Faber, J., Hanayama, S., Zhang, S., Pereda, P., Comer, B., Hauherhof, H., van der Loeff, W., Smith, T., Zhang, Y., Kosaka, H., Adachi, M., Bonello, J., Galbarith, C., Gong, Z., Hirata, K., Hummels, D., Klejin, A., Lee, D.S., Liu, Y., Lucchesi, A., Mao, X., Muraoka, E., Osipova, L., Qian, H., Rutherford, D., Suarez de la Fuante, S., Yuan, H., Perico, V., Wu, L., Sun, D., Yoo, D. and Xing, H., 4 Albert Embankment, London SE1 7SR. imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/Pages/Fourth-IMO-Greenhouse-Gas-Study-2020.aspx
IMO, (2021b). Report of fuel oil consumption data submitted to the IMO Ship Fuel Oil Consumption Database in GISIS (Reporting year: 2020) MEPC 77/6/1; IMO: London, UK. imo.org/
JASP TEAM, (2022). JASP (Version 0.16.2) [Computer Software]. jasp-stats.org/
Jeong, B., Lee, B. S., Zhou, P., & Ha, S. M. (2017). Evaluation of safety exclusion zone for LNG bunkering station on LNG-fuelled ships. Journal of marine engineering & technology, 16(3), 121-144. https://doi.org/10.1080/20464177.2017.1295786
Jeong, B., Jang, H., Zhou, P., & Lee, J. U. (2019). Investigation on marine LNG propulsion systems for LNG carriers through an enhanced hybrid decision making model. Journal of Cleaner Production, 230, 98-115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.05.054
Joss, M. (2017). Natural gas pathway analysis for heavy duty vehicles. Report for Energy Technologies Institute LLP. Retrieved from https://d2umxnkyjne36n.cloudfront.net/teaserImages/Natural-Gas-Pathway-Analysis-for-Heavy-Duty-Vehicles-Matthew-Joss.pdf?mtime=20171101113809
Karlı, H., Karlı, R.G.Ö., & Çelikyay, S. (2021). Fuzzy AHP Approach to The Determinatıon of Smart Port Dimensions: A Case Study on Filyos Port. Düzce Üniversitesi Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi, 9(1), 322-336. https://doi.org/10.29130/dubited.811530
Kim, A. R., Kwak, D. W., & Seo, Y. J. (2021). Evaluation of liquefied natural gas bunkering port selection. International Journal of Logistics Research and Applications, 24(3), 213-226. https://doi.org/10.1080/13675567.2019.1642311
Kumar, S., Kwon, H. T., Choi, K. H., Lim, W., Cho, J. H., Tak, K., & Moon, I. (2011). LNG: An eco-friendly cryogenic fuel for sustainable development. Applied energy, 88(12), 4264-4273. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.06.035
Kusumaningtyas, A. F. (2019). Determining the Optimal Locations for the Development of Onshore LNG Bunkering Facilities. Yüksek Lisans Tezi. https://thesis.eur.nl/pub/49100/Kusumaningtyas-Anna-Felicia.pdf
Maritime Magazine. (2021). Maersk CEO calls for big carbon tax on bunker fuel. Şu tarihte erişildi: 05.07.2022: maritimemag.com/en/maersk-ceo-calls-for-big-carbon-tax-on-bunker-fuel/
Ni, P., Wang, X., & Li, H. (2020). A review on regulations, current status, effects and reduction strategies of emissions for marine diesel engines. Fuel, 279, 118477. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fuel.2020.118477
Nieman, D. E., Morris, A. P., Miwa, J. T., & Denton, B. D. (2019). Methods of improving combustionefficiency in a high-efficiency, lean burn dual-fuel heavy-duty engine (No. 2019-01-0032). SAE Technical Paper. https://doi.org/10.4271/2019-01-0032
Niérat, P., & Guerrero, D. (2019). UNCTAD maritime connectivity indicators: review, critique andproposal. UNCTAD Transport and Trade Facilitation Newsletter N. unctad.org/news/unc
tad-maritime-connectivity-indicators-review-critique-and-proposal
Oguztimur, S., & Colak, K. (2013). The Analysis of Turkey’s Freight Transport in Terms of TranportModes. ERSA 2013 - 53rd Congress of the European Regional Science Association, Palermo, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10419/123959
Park, N. K., & Park, S. K. (2019). A study on the estimation of facilities in LNG bunkering terminalby simulation—Busan Port case. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 7(10), 354. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse7100354
Pavlenko, N., Comer, B., Zhou, Y., Clark, N., Rutherford, D., (2020). The climate implications of using LNG as a marine fuel. International Council on Clean Transportation: Berlin, Germany.theicct.org/publication/the-climate-implications-of-using-lng-as-a-marine-fuel/
Peng, W., Yang, J., Corbin, J., Trivanovic, U., Lobo, P., Kirchen, P., Cocker, D., et al. (2020). Comprehensive analysis of the air quality impacts of switching a marine vessel from diesel fuel to natural gas. Environmental Pollution, 266, 115404. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2020.115404
Peng, Y., Zhao, X., Zuo, T., Wang, W., & Song, X. (2021). A systematic literature review on port LNG bunkering station. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 91, 102704. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2021.102704
Psaraftis, H. N. (2021). Shipping decarbonization in the aftermath of MEPC 76. Cleaner Logistics and Supply Chain, 1, 100008. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.clscn.2021.100008
Ship & Bunker, (2022). Rotterdam Bunker Prices. Şu tarihte erişildi: 08.07.2022: https://shipandbunker.com/prices/emea/nwe/nl-rtm-rotterdam#LNG
Sofiev, M., Winebrake, J. J., Johansson, L., Carr, E. W., Prank, M., Soares, J., Corbett, J. J., et al. (2018). Cleaner fuels for ships provide public health benefits with climate tradeoffs. Nature communications, 9(1), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-02774-9
Tofalos, C., Jeong, B., & Jang, H. (2020). Safety comparison analysis between LNG/LH2 for bunkering operation. Journal of International Maritime Safety, Environmental Affairs, and Shipping, 4(4), 135-150. https://doi.org/10.1080/25725084.2020.1840859
Tovar, B., & Wall, A. (2022). The relationship between port-level maritime connectivity and efficiency. Journal of Transport Geography, 98, 103213. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2021.103213
TRT Haber, (2022). Karadeniz gazı için boru yerleştirecek gemi Filyos Limanı’nda. 9 Haziran 2022 Perşembe 15:12. Şu tarihte erişildi: 14.07.2022. trthaber.com/haber/ekonomi/karadeniz-gazi-icin-boru-yerlestirecek-gemi-filyos-limaninda-686891.html
TÜRKLİM, Türkiye limancılık sektörü 2021 raporu. turklim.org/turklim-sektor-raporu-2021/
UAB, (2021). Karadeniz’in Yeni Lojistik Üssü Filyos Limanı, Hizmete Açıldı. 05 Haziran 2021. Şu tarihte erişildi: 25.07.2022: https://aygm.uab.gov.tr/haberler/karadeniz-in-yeni-lojistik-ussu-filyos-limani-hizmete-acildi
UAB, (2022). Türk Boğazları Gemi Geçiş İstatistikleri. Şu tarihte erişildi: 25.07.2022: https://denizcilikistatistikleri.uab.gov.tr/turk-bogazlari-gemi-gecis-istatistikleri
UNCTAD, (2010). Review of Maritime Transport. unctad.org/webflyer/review-maritime-transport-2010-0
UNCTAD, (2018). Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (2004-2018). 3 Ekim 2018. unctad.org/search?keys=turkey+lsci
UNCTAD, (2020). Handbook of Statistics. unctad.org/system/files/official-document/tdstat45_en.pdf
UNCTAD. (2021a). Review of Maritime Transport 2021 Report. Challenges faced by seafarers in view of the COVID-19 crisis. Cenevre Kasım 2021. https://unctad.org/publications
UNCTAD. (2021b). Port calls, time spent in ports, vessel age and size in 2020. UNCTAD Secretariat, based on data provided by MarineTraffic (http://marinetraffic.com). Ships of 1000 GT and above. https://unctadstat.unctad.org/CountryProfile/MaritimeProfile/en-GB/792/index.html
UNCTAD, (2022). Liner shipping bilateral connectivity index, quarterly. Table summary, Division on Technology and Logistics, Division on International Trade in Goods and Services, and Commodities based on data from MDS Transmodal. mdst.co.uk; unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/TableViewer/tableView.aspx
Utikad, (2020). Fatih’in Sondajı Filyos Limanı’nın Önemini Artırdı. 25.08.2020. Pusula Gazetesi. Kaynak: lojiport.com. utikad.org.tr/Detay/Sektor-Haberleri/29064/fatih-in-sondaji-filyos-limani-nin-onemini-artirdi
Wan, C., Yan, X., Zhang, D., & Yang, Z. (2019). A novel policy making aid model for the develoment of LNG fuelled ships. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 119, 29-44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2018.10.038
Wang, S., & Notteboom, T. (2015). The role of port authorities in the development of LNG bukering facilities in North European ports. WMU Journal of Maritime Affairs, 14(1), 61-92. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13437-014-0074-9
Yılmaz, M. (2019). Karabük’te Haddehaneler ve Sanayinin Desantralizasyonu (Doktora Tezi). http://acikerisim.karabuk.edu.tr:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/631
Yu, Y. U., Ahn, Y. J., & Kim, J. K. (2021). Determination of the LNG Bunkering Optimization Method for Ports Based on Geometric Aggregation Score Calculation. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 9(10), 1116. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse9101116
Zincir, B., Deniz, C., & Tunér, M. (2019). Investigation of environmental, operational and economic performance of methanol partially premixed combustion at slow speed operation of a marine engine. Journal of Cleaner Production, 235, 1006-1019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.07.044
